Crude oil off highs but still higher

The USDCAD extended to a new low going back to 2015 on the break of the low from May 18 at 1.20122. The low price reached 1.2006 but stalled the fall ahead of the 1.2000 level (nice round numbers), and it was enough to attract the “buy low” crowd.

The price moved back above swing levels from May 21 and May 25 and the subsequent 4 hours of trading has continued the run higher.

The move has breached the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.20697 but has reached its match against the 100 hour MA. That MA was broken yesterday, but not for long. With the MA holding on the first look, it increases the levels importance going forward.  Get and stay above, is more bullish with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.20863 as another target to get above.

The price of the USDCAD has been mostly in at 1.2012 to 1.2144 range since May 14.  There have been the buy low crowd, but over the last 4 trading days, there have been lower highs.  If the 100 hour MA can hold, the sellers will continue to inch more and more control.  However, getting below 1.2000 is still a key target to get to and through.  That seems to be a tough nut to crack.  

PS the price of crude oil is off the intraday high of $68.87, but still trades up a $1.60 or 2.43% at $67.92 Despite the rise, the CAD has weakened in the NA session (and trades at session highs).  So there is a little disconnect between the CAD and the price of oil.  Does that work itself out?  We will see, but the disconnect seems to imply the USDCAD may have some underlying support at least for now near the 1.2000 level. 

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