Volatile up and down move in the USDCAD this week
The USDCAD on Monday, opened and moved higher. That run, took the price back above a cluster of MAs near 1.2570 and up to a swing area at 1.2623 to 1.2628 (red numbered circles). The high extreme from March 30 reached 1.2646. The high price also stalled against a topside trend line (see green numbered circles).
The fall from the high to the price back below the cluster of moving averages (including the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4hour chart and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages) on Tuesday. That bias remained in place for the the rest of the week with the rally on Wednesday stalling against the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart, and the rally on Thursday and again today, stalling against the 200 hour MA (lower green line in the chart above). Focusing on those MAs, the sellers are more in control.
On the downside, the on Thursday, just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 18 low at 1.24719.
Today, as mentioned the price high stalled against its 200 hour moving average at the high, and as since broken back lower, falling below a swing area between 1.2520-1.2527 and a lower swing area between 1.2501 and 1.2505. Currently the price trades below both as sellers are pushing.
The last intraday swing hi did stall ahead of the 1.2520 -273 area. I would use that area as a close resistance now. Stay below is more bearish. A move above does not kill the bearish bias. I would be more concerned about a move back above the 100 hour moving average /38.2% retracement 1.25386 area. However, it would weaken the bearish bias intraday as the clock ticks toward the close for the week..