Tests 50% retracement and swing area

The USDCAD squeeze continued (see earlier post) after making some earlier breaks to the upside. 

The pair has now moved up to test the 50% retracement of the move down from the January 28 high (high for the year) at 1.26224. The high price just reached 1.26228.  Also above is a swing area between 1.26236 to 1.2634. The last three swing highs stalled at lower highs (the highest high is outside the swing are which goes back to March 25.  

If the 50% and swing area is broken, the high from March 25 will be targeted followed by the falling 100 day MA at 1.2677. The last time the price traded above the 100 day MA was  back on November 2, 2020 when the price was up at 1.3328.  

A move back below 1.2600 is the close risk level. A move below is not the end of the world but it would be a modest tilt back to the downside and confirmation of the successful test of the 50% retracement.  

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