Risk defined by the 100 hour MA at 1.2118

The USDCAD moved above its 100 hour moving average for the first time since May 5 into the close yesterday, and although there was eight dip back below in the Asian session for a couple hours, the price rebounded back above and has been able to stay above for the last 11 or so trading hours. The last dip in the current hourly bar found buyers against the level (the low reach 1.21133 just above the moving average level). The price has bounced back up to 1.21352.

Going forward the 100 hour moving average remains as a risk defining level for the buyers.  Stay above keeps the buyers in play.

Having said that, there is work to do.  The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high comes in at 1.21617. If the buyers are to take more control, getting above that retracement level is a minimum target to get to and through.  Above that, the falling 200 hour moving average at 1.21859 (and moving lower), is a another target if the buyers are to take more control. The trend moved lower in the USDCAD as not seen the price trade above its 200 hour moving average since April 21.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the high price today did retest the underside of a broken trendline at 1.21654 The high price reached 1.2157 so far today. That level is just above the 38.2% retracement at 1.21617 from the hourly chart.

USDCAD on the daily chart

Buyers are making a play above the 100 hour moving average, but there is work to do if they are to take more control from the sellers. The battle is on.



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