Will the sellers push lower now?
The USDJPY on Friday and again today, moved above the 100 hour moving average on a number of hourly bars (10 to be exact). Of those 10, two of them closed above the MA, only to have the price rotate back below (and close below), and the very next hourly bar.
The buyers had their shots over the last two days. They failed.
The last six hourly bars have not touched the 100 hour MA at 108.908 (and moving lower). Moreover, the last high corrective bar, stalled at a swing level at 108.828 (see red numbered circles). Are the sellers leaning against the lower level (not the 100 hour MA)? It seems that way.
If the price can stay below that 108.828 level, the sellers are in firm control, and traders will take a relook at the lows from last week (and going back further) including 108.654, 108.606 and 108.566. Below that, and the lows from May 7 and May 11 near 108.342 would all be targeted (and easily doable – its only 44 or so pips away now).
Buyers had their shots. That's up to the sellers now to prove that they can take more control by getting through recent lows.