But work to do on the downside still

The USDJPY moved above a topside trend line on the hourly chart in the early Asian session but failed.  The price found resistance against the trend line at green numbered circle 5 and has added a break of the 100 hour MA. That has given sellers a little more confidence. 

Having said that, the sellers may be making a play, but they at work to do. Technically, the last five days has seen the price form a swing area between the 38.2% retracement of the last trend leg higher at 110.354 and 110.421 (which is near swing levels going back to last Tuesday). The low from Friday stalled in that area. The low from Wednesday last week also stalled in that area (the highs from Tuesday stalled there too).  

A break below the 38.2% retracement  (and staying below), should help open the door for further downside probing. Remember, however, the 38.2% is just of the last trend leg higher. As such, it is the minimum retracement level to get to and through. So it is just a start, but it is more of a tilt in that direction in the short term and would be something “new” over the last 5 trading days. 

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